Bitcoin rejects at 21-day trendline — How low can BTC price go?

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Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold above $30,000 after the July 20 Wall Street open as one analyst forecast a return to range lows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price sinks through $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked weak BTC price action after a rejection at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Sitting at $30,400, that SMA provided the day’s high for Bitcoin, with the market then retracing its intraday progress entirely.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21SMA. Source: TradingView

Reacting, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, warned that lower levels could well come next.

“Not breaking the crucial area, seems like we’re going to have another sweep of the low for Bitcoin,” he told Twitter followers.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades added that volatility could return thanks to rising open interest.

“Bitcoin Has been finding support on the bottom of the range and 4H 200MA/EMA,” he continued in a further Twitter post about the 4-hour 200-period moving average and exponential moving average.

“So far, the bounce has not been very convincing yet and the lower timeframes are extremely choppy. $30.5K and $29.5K remain my levels of interest in the short term.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile noted the significance of the 21-day SMA, suggesting that a temporary peak may be in for BTC/USD.

“A hard rejection from technical resistance at the 21-Day Moving Avg and more asks stacking at $31k could indicate things are getting toppy for the moment,” part of the day’s analysis read.

“Bulls need to regroup here and gather the herd if they want a legit chance to stampede past those sell walls.”

A prior print of the Binance BTC/USD order book showed a lack of bid liquidity immediately below the $30,000 mark.

BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/Twitter

Labor market data boosts U.S. dollar

Macroeconomic events on the day meanwhile focused on strong tech earnings along with a slowdown in United States jobless claims.

Related: Bitcoin traders say ‘get ready’ as BTC price preps 2023 bull market

The impact on the U.S. dollar was pronounced, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) gaining ground to near 101 for the first time in several days.

“So today, Initial Jobless Claims was less than previous & forecasted so the trajectory expected for increasing layoffs is slower (lower is good for USD),” popular trader Skew wrote in part of a response. 

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Cointelegraph previously wrote about the changing dynamics between BTC price performance and DXY strength.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.